Rijeka 3-0 HNK Gorica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 21 Apr 2024

📅21/04/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.25
Draw
23%
5.28
Away
16%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.1
Over 2.5
48%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.4
No
60%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.95
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.14
6+ Goals
10%
10.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.95 — our 29% vs market 20.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
5%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
76%
-14.5pp
23%
Draw
16%
+6.7pp
16%
Away Win
8%
+7.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.9pp
40%
BTTS Yes
38%
+2.2pp
60%
BTTS No
62%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rijeka EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 11%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -4%
1.51/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.62/1.66
+13% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +17%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
385 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 76%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.0
23.2 Crosses 13.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rijeka
5W-0D-1L
AWAY HNK Gorica
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.05 xG 0.87
54% Ball Possession 46%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
290 Passes 223
72% Pass Accuracy 66%
24 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 4
11.02.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-2 HT 0-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
24.01.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 2-3 HT 2-1 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
29.10.2023 Rijeka Rijeka 1-0 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
23.04.2023 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-0 HT 0-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
12.02.2023 Rijeka Rijeka 2-0 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
09.10.2022 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-2 HT 0-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
POST-MATCH Rijeka vs HNK Gorica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rijeka ran out comfortable winners over HNK Gorica 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Rijeka as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rijeka had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Rijeka and 0.50 for HNK Gorica.

What was the final score of Rijeka vs HNK Gorica?

Rijeka 3-0 HNK Gorica in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 21/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rijeka vs HNK Gorica?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rijeka win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Rijeka 61%, draw 23%, HNK Gorica 16%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rijeka), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rijeka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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