Dinamo Zagreb 5-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.29
Draw
24%
5.15
Away
17%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.43
Over 2.5
53%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.95
No
50%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.07
2-3 Goals
40%
1.96
4-5 Goals
27%
2.74
6+ Goals
13%
7.13
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
5%
X/X
12%
2/1
15%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
73%
-13.9pp
24%
Draw
16%
+7.7pp
17%
Away Win
11%
+6.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
38%
+9.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
62%
-9.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.5pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Zagreb EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb EU Bookmakers 14%
-1% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +13%
1.76/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.69
+11% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -1%
64% Ball Possession 36%
19 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
418 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 220 · 69%
32.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.8
21.4 Crosses 15.0
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Zagreb
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.56 xG 0.86
60% Ball Possession 40%
19 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
392 Passes 237
78% Pass Accuracy 67%
38 Box Touches 12
25 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.04.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 0-1 HT 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
10.02.2024 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-2 HT 2-2 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
23.01.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 0-3 HT 0-2 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
29.10.2023 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 HT 0-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIR
08.04.2023 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-2 HT 1-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
01.03.2023 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 3-1 HT 0-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb Lokomotiva Zagreb HIRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Zagreb
5-1
AWAY Lokomotiva Zagreb
2.51 xG 0.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
339 Passes 329
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
26 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Dinamo Zagreb vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Zagreb ran out comfortable winners over Lokomotiva Zagreb 5-1. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Dinamo Zagreb as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Dinamo Zagreb had 50% of the ball to Lokomotiva Zagreb's 50%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 2.51 to 0.50.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Zagreb had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Dinamo Zagreb and 1.33 for Lokomotiva Zagreb.

What was the final score of Dinamo Zagreb vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Dinamo Zagreb 5-1 Lokomotiva Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Zagreb vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dinamo Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Zagreb 59%, draw 24%, Lokomotiva Zagreb 17%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb) ✓ Over 2.5
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