Sporting CP 3-2 Boavista — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 14 Dec 2024

📅14/12/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.16
Draw
19%
7.13
Away
16%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
3.14
Over 2.5
51%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.96
No
61%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
7.58
2-3 Goals
41%
2.24
4-5 Goals
24%
2.34
6+ Goals
11%
4.16
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 7.58 — our 24% vs market 8.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
44%
1.26
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
34.5
X/1
14%
3.62
X/2
5%
34.5
X/X
8%
12.85
2/1
7%
22.55
2/2
5%
27.0
2/X
5%
32.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
82%
-16.9pp
19%
Draw
11%
+7.5pp
16%
Away Win
7%
+9.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
28%
+20.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
72%
-20.3pp
39%
BTTS Yes
47%
-7.7pp
61%
BTTS No
53%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting CP EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Boavista EU Bookmakers 9%
+2% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -7%
2.43/0.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.63/2.42
+7% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +4%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
471 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 262 · 75%
35.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.3
23.8 Crosses 12.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting CP
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Boavista
2.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.34 xG 0.53
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 2
510 Passes 260
88% Pass Accuracy 76%
31 Box Touches 8
21 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.03.2024 Sporting CP Sporting CP 6-1 HT 1-1 Boavista Boavista POR
30.10.2023 Boavista Boavista 0-2 HT 0-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
12.03.2023 Sporting CP Sporting CP 3-0 HT 2-0 Boavista Boavista POR
17.09.2022 Boavista Boavista 2-1 HT 1-0 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
25.04.2022 Boavista Boavista 0-3 HT 0-1 Sporting CP Sporting CP POR
11.12.2021 Sporting CP Sporting CP 2-0 HT 0-0 Boavista Boavista POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting CP
3-2
AWAY Boavista
2.06 xG 0.69
72% Ball Possession 28%
20 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 1
532 Passes 170
89% Pass Accuracy 73%
57 Box Touches 9
30 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sporting CP vs Boavista
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting CP nicked a narrow win over Boavista 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sporting CP as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sporting CP had 72% of the ball to Boavista's 28%, shots finished 20-8, expected goals 2.06 to 0.69 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sporting CP's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting CP had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.83 goals for Sporting CP and 0.50 for Boavista.

What was the final score of Sporting CP vs Boavista?

Sporting CP 3-2 Boavista in the Portugal - Premier League on 14/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting CP vs Boavista?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting CP win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Sporting CP 65%, draw 19%, Boavista 16%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting CP), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting CP) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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