Almeria vs Burgos Prediction — Model Probabilities
Almeria v Burgos — Team-Based Signals
Almeria vs Burgos Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings
Almeria 1-2 Burgos — Actual Match Statistics
Burgos came out on the right side of a one-goal game with Almeria 2-1 away from home. It stood 1-1 at the interval — everything that mattered happened after the restart.
Our pre-match lean was Almeria at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
The goals picture was genuinely open: 46% for over 2.5, 49% on both teams scoring. At 1.67 (~60%), the BTTS-no price was shorter than our number — the market leaned harder than we did.
On the day, possession split 65% to 35% in Almeria's favour, shots finished 10-7, expected goals 0.80 to 1.05.
Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Almeria had the better of it with 3 wins. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.75 a game for Almeria against 0.75 for Burgos.
Almeria vs Burgos Result & Final Score
Almeria 1-2 Burgos in the Spain - 2nd Division on 14/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Almeria vs Burgos Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Almeria win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Almeria 53%, draw 26%, Burgos 21%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.