Arouca vs Alverca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Arouca v Alverca — Team-Based Signals
Arouca 1-0 Alverca — Actual Match Statistics
Arouca edged past Alverca 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Alverca at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.
On the day, Arouca had 69% of the ball to Alverca's 31%, shots finished 18-4, expected goals 1.61 to 0.22 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Arouca's control.
What was the final score of Arouca vs Alverca?
Arouca 1-0 Alverca in the Portugal - Premier League on 14/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Arouca vs Alverca?
Before kick-off our model rated an Alverca win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Arouca 33%, draw 24%, Alverca 43%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.