Moreirense 0-4 Benfica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 14 Dec 2025

Moreirense
0-4 HT 0-1
Benfica
📅14/12/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 0-3 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2025/2026

Moreirense vs Benfica Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
14%
6.35
Draw
20%
4.19
Away
66%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.9
Over 2.5
55%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
2.09
No
48%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.29
2-3 Goals
44%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
3.47
6+ Goals
11%
13.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
13.9
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
25.5
1/X
7%
22.25
X/1
5%
15.25
X/2
17%
3.78
X/X
9%
5.91
2/1
3%
35.0
2/2
40%
1.71
2/X
4%
18.85
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.5 — our 9% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
15%
Home Win
13%
+1.6pp
20%
Draw
21%
-0.9pp
66%
Away Win
66%
-0.7pp
45%
Under 2.5
49%
-3.9pp
55%
Over 2.5
51%
+3.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
44%
+7.7pp
48%
BTTS No
56%
-7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Moreirense v Benfica — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Moreirense EU Bookmakers 16%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica EU Bookmakers 70%
+4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -21%
0.58/1.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.82/0.99
+3% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -7%
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
238 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 404 · 81%
11.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.2
12.7 Crosses 20.1
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.4

Moreirense vs Benfica Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Moreirense
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Benfica
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.57 xG 1.86
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
264 Passes 506
73% Pass Accuracy 85%
12 Box Touches 33
11 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.02.2025 Benfica Benfica 3-2 HT 3-1 Moreirense Moreirense POR
30.08.2024 Moreirense Moreirense 1-1 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POR
14.04.2024 Benfica Benfica 3-0 HT 2-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
03.12.2023 Moreirense Moreirense 0-0 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POR
17.12.2022 Moreirense Moreirense 1-1 HT 1-1 Benfica Benfica PRLK
15.01.2022 Benfica Benfica 1-1 HT 0-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR

Moreirense 0-4 Benfica — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Moreirense
0-4
AWAY Benfica
0.51 xG 1.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
459 Passes 410
87% Pass Accuracy 86%
9 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Moreirense vs Benfica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica swept aside Moreirense 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Moreirense had 53% of the ball to Benfica's 47%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 0.51 to 1.00.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Moreirense and 1.50 for Benfica.

What was the final score of Moreirense vs Benfica?

Moreirense 0-4 Benfica in the Portugal - Premier League on 14/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Moreirense vs Benfica?

Before kick-off our model rated an Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Moreirense 15%, draw 20%, Benfica 66%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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