Benfica 3-2 Moreirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 8 Feb 2025

📅08/02/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
71%
1.22
Draw
17%
5.28
Away
12%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.23
Over 2.5
52%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.19
No
63%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.37
2-3 Goals
41%
1.87
4-5 Goals
23%
2.81
6+ Goals
10%
7.96
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.37 — our 26% vs market 17.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
45%
1.37
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
26.5
X/1
19%
3.6
X/2
4%
24.7
X/X
6%
8.55
2/1
7%
24.3
2/2
4%
23.4
2/X
6%
31.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
71%
Home Win
77%
-5.8pp
17%
Draw
15%
+1.7pp
12%
Away Win
8%
+4.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.4pp
37%
BTTS Yes
42%
-4.8pp
63%
BTTS No
58%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Moreirense EU Bookmakers 11%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -8%
2.78/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.87
+14% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / +2%
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
484 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 77%
36.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.0
23.1 Crosses 12.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Moreirense
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.81 xG 0.64
65% Ball Possession 35%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 1
505 Passes 242
84% Pass Accuracy 71%
32 Box Touches 12
24 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 4
30.08.2024 Moreirense Moreirense 1-1 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POR
14.04.2024 Benfica Benfica 3-0 HT 2-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
03.12.2023 Moreirense Moreirense 0-0 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POR
17.12.2022 Moreirense Moreirense 1-1 HT 1-1 Benfica Benfica PRLK
15.01.2022 Benfica Benfica 1-1 HT 0-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
07.08.2021 Moreirense Moreirense 1-2 HT 1-2 Benfica Benfica POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
3-2
AWAY Moreirense
1.63 xG 1.10
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
433 Passes 359
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 10
15 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Benfica vs Moreirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica edged past Moreirense 3-2. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 71%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Benfica had 54% of the ball to Moreirense's 46%, shots finished 11-8, expected goals 1.63 to 1.10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Benfica and 0.67 for Moreirense.

What was the final score of Benfica vs Moreirense?

Benfica 3-2 Moreirense in the Portugal - Premier League on 08/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica vs Moreirense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 71%, with the full match-result split Benfica 71%, draw 17%, Moreirense 12%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR More Portugal - Premier League
8 Feb 2025
18:30 AVS vs Santa Clara Analysis →
23:30 Famalicao vs Vitoria Guimaraes Analysis →