Benfica 3-0 Moreirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 14 Apr 2024

Benfica
3-0 HT 2-0
Moreirense
📅14/04/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Benfica vs Moreirense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.37
Draw
26%
4.49
Away
17%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.15
Over 2.5
44%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.16
2-3 Goals
43%
1.86
4-5 Goals
20%
3.04
6+ Goals
10%
9.52
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.16 — our 27% vs market 19.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.65
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
19.9
X/1
24%
3.49
X/2
6%
15.6
X/X
10%
6.77
2/1
9%
22.3
2/2
6%
12.5
2/X
8%
20.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
68%
-11.0pp
26%
Draw
19%
+6.8pp
17%
Away Win
13%
+4.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
43%
+12.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
57%
-12.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.6pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Benfica v Moreirense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Moreirense EU Bookmakers 16%
-1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
2.81/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/2.06
+19% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +4%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
421 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 76%
37.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.6
22.9 Crosses 12.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.2

Benfica vs Moreirense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Moreirense
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.20 xG 0.78
68% Ball Possession 32%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
510 Passes 191
85% Pass Accuracy 68%
36 Box Touches 10
22 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
03.12.2023 Moreirense Moreirense 0-0 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POR
17.12.2022 Moreirense Moreirense 1-1 HT 1-1 Benfica Benfica PRLK
15.01.2022 Benfica Benfica 1-1 HT 0-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
07.08.2021 Moreirense Moreirense 1-2 HT 1-2 Benfica Benfica POR
14.02.2021 Moreirense Moreirense 1-1 HT 1-1 Benfica Benfica POR
26.09.2020 Benfica Benfica 2-0 HT 1-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR

Benfica 3-0 Moreirense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
3-0
AWAY Moreirense
1.71 xG 0.25
50% Ball Possession 50%
19 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 2
481 Passes 474
88% Pass Accuracy 86%
23 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Benfica vs Moreirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica swept aside Moreirense 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Benfica had 50% of the ball to Moreirense's 50%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 1.71 to 0.25.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Benfica and 0.67 for Moreirense.

What was the final score of Benfica vs Moreirense?

Benfica 3-0 Moreirense in the Portugal - Premier League on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica vs Moreirense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Benfica 57%, draw 26%, Moreirense 17%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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