Estrela 2-2 Rio Ave — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 14 Apr 2024

Estrela
2-2 HT 1-1
Rio Ave
📅14/04/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Estrela vs Rio Ave Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.47
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
35%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.59
Over 2.5
45%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.44
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
4.89
6+ Goals
9%
28.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.85
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.0
X/1
14%
5.15
X/2
11%
5.44
X/X
10%
3.82
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
16%
4.15
2/X
6%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
37%
+2.4pp
26%
Draw
30%
-3.9pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+1.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
59%
-4.3pp
45%
Over 2.5
41%
+4.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.2pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Estrela v Rio Ave — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estrela EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Rio Ave EU Bookmakers 37%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -12%
1.30/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.43
+17% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +12%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
288 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 79%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
17.6 Crosses 17.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.3

Estrela vs Rio Ave Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estrela
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Rio Ave
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.57 xG 1.64
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
280 Passes 344
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
6 Box Touches 29
12 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
02.12.2023 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-1 HT 0-0 Estrela Estrela POR
14.02.2022 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-0 HT 1-0 Estrela Estrela POR2
10.09.2021 Estrela Estrela 2-5 HT 1-2 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR2

Estrela 2-2 Rio Ave — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estrela
2-2
AWAY Rio Ave
2.59 xG 0.46
61% Ball Possession 39%
19 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 1
390 Passes 251
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
28 Box Touches 13
36 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Estrela vs Rio Ave
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estrela and Rio Ave couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 26% / 35%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Estrela had 61% of the ball to Rio Ave's 39%, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 2.59 to 0.46.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Rio Ave led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Estrela and 2.33 for Rio Ave.

What was the final score of Estrela vs Rio Ave?

Estrela 2-2 Rio Ave in the Portugal - Premier League on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estrela vs Rio Ave?

Before kick-off our model rated a Estrela win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Estrela 39%, draw 26%, Rio Ave 35%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Estrela) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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