Arouca 2-1 Boavista — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 14 Apr 2024

Arouca
2-1 HT 2-0
Boavista
📅14/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Arouca vs Boavista Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.72
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.9
Over 2.5
50%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.31
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.57
6+ Goals
10%
14.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.22
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.9
X/1
15%
3.94
X/2
10%
9.35
X/X
11%
4.99
2/1
8%
24.0
2/2
9%
7.37
2/X
6%
15.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
54%
-4.5pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.3pp
26%
Away Win
21%
+4.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
49%
+1.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
51%
-1.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.5pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arouca v Boavista — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arouca EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Boavista EU Bookmakers 24%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -14%
1.64/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.37
+10% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -1%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
332 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 72%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.1
23.2 Crosses 15.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.9

Arouca vs Boavista Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arouca
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Boavista
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.04 xG 0.90
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
277 Passes 361
74% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 15
13 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
03.12.2023 Boavista Boavista 0-4 HT 0-3 Arouca Arouca POR
26.11.2023 Arouca Arouca 2-2 HT 1-0 Boavista Boavista POK
03.03.2023 Boavista Boavista 0-0 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
11.09.2022 Arouca Arouca 1-2 HT 1-1 Boavista Boavista POR
09.04.2022 Boavista Boavista 1-0 HT 1-0 Arouca Arouca POR
27.11.2021 Arouca Arouca 2-1 HT 1-0 Boavista Boavista POR

Arouca 2-1 Boavista — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arouca
2-1
AWAY Boavista
3.27 xG 0.84
69% Ball Possession 31%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 4
471 Passes 169
88% Pass Accuracy 72%
23 Box Touches 11
11 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Arouca vs Boavista
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arouca nicked a narrow win over Boavista 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Arouca as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Arouca had 69% of the ball to Boavista's 31%, shots finished 15-9, expected goals 3.27 to 0.84 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Arouca's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Arouca and 1.00 for Boavista.

What was the final score of Arouca vs Boavista?

Arouca 2-1 Boavista in the Portugal - Premier League on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arouca vs Boavista?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Arouca 50%, draw 25%, Boavista 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arouca) — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Arouca)
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