Portimonense 2-2 Casa Pia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.38
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
36%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.67
Over 2.5
46%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.69
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
4.35
6+ Goals
11%
22.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.63
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.4
X/1
13%
5.13
X/2
11%
5.72
X/X
15%
4.01
2/1
6%
31.5
2/2
19%
4.23
2/X
8%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
38%
-3.1pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.4pp
36%
Away Win
33%
+2.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.7pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portimonense EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 37%
+2% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.33/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.24
-21% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -14%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
336 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 78%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
19.6 Crosses 15.5
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portimonense
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Casa Pia
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.99 xG 1.39
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
399 Passes 255
80% Pass Accuracy 73%
11 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
02.12.2023 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-0 HT 0-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR
05.05.2023 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-1 HT 0-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR
28.12.2022 Portimonense Portimonense 1-2 HT 1-1 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portimonense
2-2
AWAY Casa Pia
0.77 xG 1.92
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 8
260 Passes 326
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
15 Box Touches 33
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Portimonense vs Casa Pia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portimonense and Casa Pia couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (35% / 29% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Portimonense had 46% of the ball to Casa Pia's 54%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 0.77 to 1.92.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Casa Pia led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Portimonense and 1.33 for Casa Pia.

What was the final score of Portimonense vs Casa Pia?

Portimonense 2-2 Casa Pia in the Portugal - Premier League on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portimonense vs Casa Pia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Casa Pia win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Portimonense 35%, draw 29%, Casa Pia 36%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Casa Pia) ✗ Under 2.5
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