Famalicao 4-0 Estoril — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 14 Dec 2025

📅14/12/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.72
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
24%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.97
Over 2.5
50%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.75
No
44%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.55
2-3 Goals
43%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.27
6+ Goals
9%
11.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.22
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.05
X/1
15%
4.35
X/2
9%
9.68
X/X
6%
5.27
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.1
2/2
8%
7.57
2/X
10%
15.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.1 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
54%
-1.0pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.5pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+2.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
47%
+3.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
53%
-3.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
53%
+3.1pp
44%
BTTS No
47%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Famalicao EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Estoril EU Bookmakers 24%
-4% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +11%
1.54/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.71
-11% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +50% / -8%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
317 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 76%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
24.2 Crosses 15.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Famalicao
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Estoril
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.46 xG 0.90
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
322 Passes 307
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
22.11.2025 Estoril Estoril 1-2 HT 0-1 Famalicao Famalicao POK
12.04.2025 Famalicao Famalicao 3-0 HT 0-0 Estoril Estoril POR
01.12.2024 Estoril Estoril 2-1 HT 2-1 Famalicao Famalicao POR
28.04.2024 Estoril Estoril 1-0 HT 1-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
17.12.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 1-1 HT 1-1 Estoril Estoril POR
29.01.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 1-0 HT 0-0 Estoril Estoril POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Famalicao
4-0
AWAY Estoril
3.00 xG 0.77
54% Ball Possession 46%
20 Total Shots 10
12 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 9
353 Passes 278
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Famalicao vs Estoril
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Famalicao cruised past Estoril 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Famalicao as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Famalicao had 54% of the ball to Estoril's 46%, shots finished 20-10, expected goals 3.00 to 0.77.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Famalicao had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Famalicao and 0.83 for Estoril.

What was the final score of Famalicao vs Estoril?

Famalicao 4-0 Estoril in the Portugal - Premier League on 14/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Famalicao vs Estoril?

Before kick-off our model rated a Famalicao win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Famalicao 53%, draw 23%, Estoril 24%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Famalicao) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Famalicao) ✗ BTTS Yes
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