Famalicao 3-0 Estoril — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.92
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
30%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.8
Over 2.5
50%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.1
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.64
6+ Goals
11%
15.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 29% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.73
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
8%
13.4
X/1
16%
4.66
X/2
11%
7.64
X/X
10%
4.66
2/1
9%
25.5
2/2
13%
5.84
2/X
6%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-2.3pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.9pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+4.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.8pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Famalicao EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Estoril EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +1%
1.29/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.62
-15% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -14%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
345 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 78%
21.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
22.3 Crosses 16.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Famalicao
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Estoril
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.30 xG 1.30
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
344 Passes 292
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
13 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
01.12.2024 Estoril Estoril 2-1 HT 2-1 Famalicao Famalicao POR
28.04.2024 Estoril Estoril 1-0 HT 1-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
17.12.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 1-1 HT 1-1 Estoril Estoril POR
29.01.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 1-0 HT 0-0 Estoril Estoril POR
15.12.2022 Estoril Estoril 0-1 HT 0-1 Famalicao Famalicao PORLC
06.08.2022 Estoril Estoril 2-0 HT 2-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Famalicao
3-0
AWAY Estoril
2.20 xG 0.25
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 8
227 Passes 353
73% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Famalicao vs Estoril
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Famalicao swept aside Estoril 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Famalicao as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Famalicao had 42% of the ball to Estoril's 58%, shots finished 9-5, expected goals 2.20 to 0.25.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Estoril led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Famalicao and 1.00 for Estoril.

What was the final score of Famalicao vs Estoril?

Famalicao 3-0 Estoril in the Portugal - Premier League on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Famalicao vs Estoril?

Before kick-off our model rated a Famalicao win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Famalicao 46%, draw 24%, Estoril 30%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Famalicao), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Famalicao) ✓ BTTS No
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