Boavista 0-1 Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 12 Apr 2025

Boavista
0-1 HT 0-1
Nacional
📅12/04/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Boavista vs Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.84
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
33%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.68
Over 2.5
37%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.82
No
55%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
2.75
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
4.07
6+ Goals
8%
19.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.75 — our 34% vs market 29.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.7
1/2
8%
29.5
1/X
8%
13.45
X/1
14%
6.4
X/2
13%
5.22
X/X
16%
4.14
2/1
8%
35.0
2/2
13%
3.43
2/X
8%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
32%
+3.0pp
32%
Draw
29%
+3.1pp
33%
Away Win
40%
-6.2pp
63%
Under 2.5
56%
+7.4pp
37%
Over 2.5
44%
-7.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.0pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Boavista v Nacional — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Boavista EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Nacional EU Bookmakers 43%
+0% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -24%
0.99/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.49
-13% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -28%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
303 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 75%
17.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
22.0 Crosses –
2.8 Yellow Cards –

Boavista vs Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Boavista
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Nacional
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.84 xG 1.03
46% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 8
218 Passes 297
71% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
30.11.2024 Nacional Nacional 0-0 HT 0-0 Boavista Boavista POR
09.02.2021 Boavista Boavista 0-1 HT 0-1 Nacional Nacional POR
19.09.2020 Nacional Nacional 3-3 HT 2-2 Boavista Boavista POR
14.04.2019 Boavista Boavista 1-0 HT 1-0 Nacional Nacional POR
09.12.2018 Nacional Nacional 0-0 HT 0-0 Boavista Boavista POR
29.07.2018 Nacional Nacional 2-1 HT 1-0 Boavista Boavista PORLC

Boavista 0-1 Nacional — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Boavista
0-1
AWAY Nacional
2.01 xG 1.71
52% Ball Possession 48%
21 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 7
275 Passes 272
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
37 Box Touches 19
30 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Boavista vs Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional squeezed past Boavista 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 32% / 33% — and on the day Nacional made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Boavista had 52% of the ball to Nacional's 48%, shots finished 21-15, expected goals 2.01 to 1.71.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nacional led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Boavista and 1.00 for Nacional.

What was the final score of Boavista vs Nacional?

Boavista 0-1 Nacional in the Portugal - Premier League on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Boavista vs Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Boavista win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Boavista 35%, draw 32%, Nacional 33%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Boavista) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Boavista) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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