Casa Pia 0-1 Porto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 12 Apr 2025

📅12/04/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
4.65
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
54%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.75
Over 2.5
49%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.99
No
51%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.89
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
3.89
6+ Goals
9%
17.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
8.98
1/2
7%
25.5
1/X
10%
17.6
X/1
10%
10.35
X/2
23%
4.03
X/X
7%
4.87
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
24%
2.14
2/X
5%
15.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
19%
+5.4pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.1pp
54%
Away Win
57%
-3.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
53%
-2.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
47%
+2.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.6pp
51%
BTTS No
54%
-2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Porto EU Bookmakers 61%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +15%
1.34/0.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/0.87
-45% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +85%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
212 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 80%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.7
16.5 Crosses 15.6
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Casa Pia
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Porto
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.78 xG 2.53
35% Ball Possession 65%
8 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
210 Passes 492
73% Pass Accuracy 86%
14 Box Touches 39
14 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.12.2024 Porto Porto 2-0 HT 0-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
21.04.2024 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-2 HT 1-1 Porto Porto POR
09.12.2023 Porto Porto 3-1 HT 1-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
14.05.2023 Porto Porto 2-1 HT 0-1 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
07.01.2023 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-0 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POR
05.12.2019 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-3 HT 0-0 Porto Porto PORLC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Casa Pia
0-1
AWAY Porto
0.54 xG 0.76
47% Ball Possession 53%
5 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
356 Passes 419
83% Pass Accuracy 87%
9 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Casa Pia vs Porto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto squeezed past Casa Pia 1-0 away from home.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Porto as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Casa Pia had 47% of the ball to Porto's 53%, shots finished 5-10, expected goals 0.54 to 0.76.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Casa Pia and 2.00 for Porto.

What was the final score of Casa Pia vs Porto?

Casa Pia 0-1 Porto in the Portugal - Premier League on 12/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Casa Pia vs Porto?

Before kick-off our model rated an Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Casa Pia 24%, draw 22%, Porto 54%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Porto) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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