Van Spor FK 0-1 Ümraniyespor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 14 Dec 2025

📅14/12/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.53
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
19%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.07
Over 2.5
47%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.81
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
20%
3.12
6+ Goals
10%
10.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.81 — our 31% vs market 20.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.94
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
8%
15.8
X/1 EV+ ✗
27%
4.09
X/2
6%
11.5
X/X
10%
5.98
2/1
7%
21.8
2/2
9%
9.29
2/X
6%
17.8
Value flag · X/1 at 4.09 — our 27% vs market 19.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
61%
-4.2pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.4pp
19%
Away Win
17%
+1.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.5pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Van Spor FK EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Ümraniyespor EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -1%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -9%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
381 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
Crosses 15.0
Yellow Cards 2.4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Van Spor FK
0-1
AWAY Ümraniyespor
0.72 xG 0.53
64% Ball Possession 36%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
468 Passes 231
85% Pass Accuracy 72%
15 Box Touches 13
32 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Van Spor FK vs Ümraniyespor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ümraniyespor nicked a narrow win over Van Spor FK 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Van Spor FK at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Van Spor FK had 64% of the ball to Ümraniyespor's 36%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 0.72 to 0.53.

What was the final score of Van Spor FK vs Ümraniyespor?

Van Spor FK 0-1 Ümraniyespor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 14/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Van Spor FK vs Ümraniyespor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Van Spor FK win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Van Spor FK 57%, draw 24%, Ümraniyespor 19%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Van Spor FK) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Van Spor FK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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