Keçiörengücü 1-1 Esenler Erokspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 14 Dec 2025

📅14/12/2025 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.0
Over 2.5
46%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.66
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
21%
3.21
6+ Goals
9%
11.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.66 — our 31% vs market 21.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.21
1/2
6%
29.5
1/X
7%
12.95
X/1 EV+ ✗
19%
5.31
X/2
12%
6.5
X/X
10%
5.05
2/1
6%
24.85
2/2
14%
4.37
2/X
8%
13.3
Value flag · X/1 at 5.31 — our 19% vs market 14.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+1.7pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.5pp
32%
Away Win
32%
-0.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
46%
+7.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
54%
-7.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.2pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Keçiörengücü EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Esenler Erokspor EU Bookmakers 36%
-3% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.17/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.03
+12% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +13%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
318 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 79%
20.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
19.0 Crosses 15.8
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Keçiörengücü
0W-2D-0L
AWAY Esenler Erokspor
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.93 xG 1.60
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
337 Passes 284
82% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 4
05.03.2025 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 2-2 HT 1-0 Esenler Erokspor Esenler Erokspor T1L
21.10.2024 Esenler Erokspor Esenler Erokspor 2-2 HT 2-1 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Keçiörengücü
1-1
AWAY Esenler Erokspor
1.16 xG 1.46
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 9
292 Passes 335
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
26 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Keçiörengücü vs Esenler Erokspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Keçiörengücü and Esenler Erokspor shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Keçiörengücü at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Keçiörengücü had 47% of the ball to Esenler Erokspor's 53%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.16 to 1.46.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Keçiörengücü and 2.00 for Esenler Erokspor.

What was the final score of Keçiörengücü vs Esenler Erokspor?

Keçiörengücü 1-1 Esenler Erokspor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 14/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Keçiörengücü vs Esenler Erokspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Keçiörengücü win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Keçiörengücü 44%, draw 25%, Esenler Erokspor 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Keçiörengücü) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Keçiörengücü) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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