Keçiörengücü 2-2 Esenler Erokspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 5 Mar 2025

📅05/03/2025 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
35%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.47
2-3 Goals
44%
1.82
4-5 Goals
19%
3.49
6+ Goals
9%
13.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.47 — our 28% vs market 23.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
2.72
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
12.8
X/1 EV+ ✗
22%
4.76
X/2
15%
7.48
X/X
11%
4.75
2/1
6%
24.3
2/2
14%
5.48
2/X
8%
13.6
Value flag · X/1 at 4.76 — our 22% vs market 16.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
47%
-6.6pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.3pp
34%
Away Win
26%
+8.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-6.4pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Keçiörengücü EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Esenler Erokspor EU Bookmakers 30%
-11% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.43/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.59
+4% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -24%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
350 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 76%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
20.7 Crosses 14.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Keçiörengücü
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Esenler Erokspor
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
2.78 xG 1.11
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
342 Passes 305
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
28 Box Touches 15
27 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
21.10.2024 Esenler Erokspor Esenler Erokspor 2-2 HT 2-1 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Keçiörengücü
2-2
AWAY Esenler Erokspor
1.08 xG 2.08
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
332 Passes 262
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
24 Box Touches 17
14 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Keçiörengücü vs Esenler Erokspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Keçiörengücü and Esenler Erokspor shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 25% / 34% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Keçiörengücü had 53% of the ball to Esenler Erokspor's 47%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.08 to 2.08.

What was the final score of Keçiörengücü vs Esenler Erokspor?

Keçiörengücü 2-2 Esenler Erokspor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 05/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Keçiörengücü vs Esenler Erokspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Keçiörengücü win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Keçiörengücü 40%, draw 25%, Esenler Erokspor 34%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Keçiörengücü) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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