Fatih Karagümrük 1-2 Bandırmaspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 5 Mar 2025

📅05/03/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
2.0
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
27%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.15
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.79
6+ Goals
11%
16.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.15 — our 27% vs market 26.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.78
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.05
X/1
19%
4.68
X/2
6%
7.35
X/X
10%
4.52
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
14%
5.57
2/X
8%
13.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
46%
+3.8pp
23%
Draw
27%
-4.2pp
27%
Away Win
27%
+0.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.5pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Bandırmaspor EU Bookmakers 30%
+3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -9%
1.30/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.46
-9% / +50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -18%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
361 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 77%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.3
18.0 Crosses 16.0
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Bandırmaspor
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
313 Passes 269
76% Pass Accuracy 70%
19.10.2024 Bandırmaspor Bandırmaspor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük T1L
30.10.2019 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 4-1 HT 2-1 Bandırmaspor Bandırmaspor TÜK
11.11.2018 Bandırmaspor Bandırmaspor 0-1 HT 0-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük S2-K
08.04.2018 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 0-2 HT 0-0 Bandırmaspor Bandırmaspor S2-B
24.09.2014 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 2-2 HT 0-0 Bandırmaspor Bandırmaspor TÜK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fatih Karagümrük
1-2
AWAY Bandırmaspor
0.74 xG 0.85
67% Ball Possession 33%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
386 Passes 159
78% Pass Accuracy 64%
24 Box Touches 9
29 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Fatih Karagümrük vs Bandırmaspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bandırmaspor edged past Fatih Karagümrük 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Fatih Karagümrük at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Fatih Karagümrük had 67% of the ball to Bandırmaspor's 33%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 0.74 to 0.85.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.20 for Bandırmaspor.

What was the final score of Fatih Karagümrük vs Bandırmaspor?

Fatih Karagümrük 1-2 Bandırmaspor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 05/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fatih Karagümrük vs Bandırmaspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fatih Karagümrük win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Fatih Karagümrük 50%, draw 23%, Bandırmaspor 27%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fatih Karagümrük) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
T1L More Turkey - 1st Division
5 Mar 2025
13:30 Keçiörengücü vs Esenler Erokspor Analysis →
16:00 Çorum FK vs Boluspor Analysis →
16:00 Şanlıurfaspor vs Adanaspor Analysis →