Naxxar Lions 2-1 Birkirkara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — MALTP, 15 Feb 2025

📅15/02/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
16%
5.4
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
61%
1.49
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.74
Over 2.5
47%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.16
No
55%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
6%
X/2
18%
X/X
10%
2/1
3%
2/2
39%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
16%
Home Win
15%
+0.5pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.4pp
61%
Away Win
63%
-2.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
54%
-0.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
46%
+0.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
42%
+2.7pp
55%
BTTS No
58%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naxxar Lions EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Birkirkara EU Bookmakers 67%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
199 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 509 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Naxxar Lions
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Birkirkara
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
44% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.11.2024 Birkirkara Birkirkara 1-0 HT 0-0 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions MLTP
14.03.2024 Birkirkara Birkirkara 0-2 HT 0-1 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions MLTP
26.11.2023 Naxxar Lions Naxxar Lions 2-0 HT 0-0 Birkirkara Birkirkara MLTP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Naxxar Lions
2-1
AWAY Birkirkara
41% Ball Possession 59%
6 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Naxxar Lions vs Birkirkara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Naxxar Lions squeezed past Birkirkara 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

This one beat our numbers. Birkirkara carried 61% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Naxxar Lions had 41% of the ball to Birkirkara's 59%, shots finished 6-6.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Naxxar Lions had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Naxxar Lions and 0.33 for Birkirkara.

What was the final score of Naxxar Lions vs Birkirkara?

Naxxar Lions 2-1 Birkirkara in the MALTP on 15/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naxxar Lions vs Birkirkara?

Before kick-off our model rated an Birkirkara win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Naxxar Lions 16%, draw 23%, Birkirkara 61%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Birkirkara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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