Kwara United 1-0 Bayelsa United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nigeria NPFL, 15 Feb 2025

📅15/02/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.57
Draw
33%
3.54
Away
16%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
68%
Over 2.5
32%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.53
No
61%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
13%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
5%
X/X
21%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
60%
-9.3pp
33%
Draw
25%
+8.1pp
16%
Away Win
15%
+1.3pp
39%
BTTS Yes
36%
+3.9pp
61%
BTTS No
64%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kwara United EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayelsa United EU Bookmakers 17%
+7% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.51/0.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.28/1.70
-7% / +75% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -58% / -17%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
326 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kwara United
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Bayelsa United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
29.09.2024 Bayelsa United Bayelsa United 1-1 HT 0-0 Kwara United Kwara United NIJ
13.03.2024 Kwara United Kwara United 1-0 HT 1-0 Bayelsa United Bayelsa United NIJ
POST-MATCH Kwara United vs Bayelsa United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kwara United squeezed past Bayelsa United 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Kwara United as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (68%), no to both teams scoring (61%) came in.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Kwara United had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Kwara United and 0.50 for Bayelsa United.

What was the final score of Kwara United vs Bayelsa United?

Kwara United 1-0 Bayelsa United in the Nigeria NPFL on 15/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kwara United vs Bayelsa United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kwara United win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Kwara United 51%, draw 33%, Bayelsa United 16%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kwara United), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Kwara United) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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