13/03/2024
·
18:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
0-1
2nd Score
0-0
Kwara United vs Bayelsa United Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
Over 2.5
34%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
35%
No
65%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
19%
X/X
20%
2/1
3%
2/2
10%
2/X
3%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
21%
30%
Draw
24%
34%
Away Win
55%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Kwara United v Bayelsa United — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Kwara United
EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY
Bayelsa United
EU Bookmakers 59%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
40%
Ball Possession
60%
8
Total Shots
15
4
Shots on Target
5
3
Corners
6
224 · 70%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
395 · 80%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Kwara United vs Bayelsa United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Kwara United edged past Bayelsa United 1-0.
Our pre-match split (36% / 30% / 34%) promised a tight game; Kwara United found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (65%), and both reads landed as well.
What was the final score of Kwara United vs Bayelsa United?
Kwara United 1-0 Bayelsa United in the Nigeria NPFL on 13/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Kwara United vs Bayelsa United?
Before kick-off our model rated a Kwara United win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Kwara United 36%, draw 30%, Bayelsa United 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kwara United), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.
✓ Match Result (Kwara United)
✓ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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13 Mar 2024