Heartland 2-0 Abia Warriors — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Nigeria NPFL, 13 Mar 2024

📅13/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.86
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
22%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.48
Over 2.5
41%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.29
No
56%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
13%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
4%
1/X
11%
X/1
27%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
4%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
50%
+1.5pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.3pp
22%
Away Win
22%
-0.1pp
59%
Under 2.5
64%
-5.2pp
41%
Over 2.5
36%
+5.2pp
44%
BTTS Yes
40%
+4.2pp
56%
BTTS No
60%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heartland EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Abia Warriors EU Bookmakers 25%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.03/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/2.07
-20% / -65% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +73% / -38%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
333 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 220 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heartland
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Abia Warriors
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
16.01.2022 Abia Warriors Abia Warriors 1-0 HT 1-0 Heartland Heartland NIJ
07.03.2021 Heartland Heartland 2-2 HT 1-2 Abia Warriors Abia Warriors NIJ
POST-MATCH Heartland vs Abia Warriors
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heartland saw off Abia Warriors 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Heartland as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Abia Warriors led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Heartland and 1.50 for Abia Warriors.

What was the final score of Heartland vs Abia Warriors?

Heartland 2-0 Abia Warriors in the Nigeria NPFL on 13/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heartland vs Abia Warriors?

Before kick-off our model rated a Heartland win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Heartland 52%, draw 27%, Abia Warriors 22%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Heartland), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Heartland) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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