Metz 1-3 Auxerre — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 15 Feb 2026

Metz
1 - 3 HT 0 - 1
Auxerre
📅15/02/2026 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2025/2026

Metz vs Auxerre Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.87
Draw
32%
2.96
Away
39%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
1.71
Over
43%
2.04
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.87
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2.68
2-3
46%
1.75
4-5
19%
4.13
6+
3%
20.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.59
1/2
2%
30.5
1/X
5%
12.65
X/1
12%
6.38
X/2
15%
5.43
X/X
21%
3.88
2/1
2%
34.5
2/2
22%
3.56
2/X
5%
12.35
STRENGTH — pattern support: Good → Great · fuller bar = deeper record. Informational.
Our Pick = the view of our model: the outcome it rates most likely. A forecast, not a bet.

Metz v Auxerre — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Metz The Market 35%
Signal
AWAY Auxerre The Market 42%
Average Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Bad
0.81 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 1.37
1.15 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.23
Weak Attack Strength Weak
Great Defense Strength Bad
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
316 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 311 · 78%
16 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15
21 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2

Metz vs Auxerre Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Metz
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Auxerre
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.42 xG 1.80
57% Ball Possession 43%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
470 Passes 242
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
12 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
07.12.2025 Auxerre Auxerre 3-1 HT 2-1 Metz Metz FR1
06.04.2019 Auxerre Auxerre 0-0 HT 0-0 Metz Metz FR2
05.11.2018 Metz Metz 0-1 HT 0-1 Auxerre Auxerre FR2
13.07.2018 Metz Metz 0-0 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre HAZ
14.07.2017 Metz Metz 1-4 HT 1-2 Auxerre Auxerre HAZ
08.04.2016 Auxerre Auxerre 4-0 HT 1-0 Metz Metz FR2

Metz 1-3 Auxerre — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Metz
1 - 3
AWAY Auxerre
0.81 xG 0.80
62% Ball Possession 38%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
481 Passes 276
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 24
29 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
REVIEW Metz vs Auxerre
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Auxerre beat Metz 3-1 on their travels. Half-time: 0-1.

The model refused to pick a side here (29% / 32% / 39%); Auxerre picked one for it. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

By the numbers, possession split 62% to 38% in Metz's favour, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 0.81 to 0.80.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Auxerre led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 0.33 a game for Metz against 2.00 for Auxerre.

Metz vs Auxerre Result & Final Score

Metz 1 - 3 Auxerre in the France - Ligue 1 on 15/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Metz vs Auxerre Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated an Auxerre win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Metz 29%, draw 32%, Auxerre 39%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Auxerre) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Auxerre) ✗ Under 2.5
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