Caernarfon Town 2-1 Connahs Quay — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - Premier League, 15 Mar 2024

📅15/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.5
Draw
33%
3.8
Away
43%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.51
Over 2.5
61%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.5
No
43%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.32
2-3 Goals
35%
1.99
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
38%
2.69
6+ Goals
8%
6.68
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 2.69 — our 38% vs market 31.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
5%
1/X
13%
X/1
7%
X/2
16%
X/X
12%
2/1
3%
2/2
22%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
25%
-0.6pp
33%
Draw
22%
+10.1pp
43%
Away Win
53%
-9.5pp
39%
Under 2.5
36%
+2.5pp
61%
Over 2.5
64%
-2.5pp
57%
BTTS Yes
62%
-5.3pp
43%
BTTS No
38%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caernarfon Town EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Connahs Quay EU Bookmakers 57%
-7% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -3%
1.33/1.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.10/1.08
+20% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +0%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
253 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caernarfon Town
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Connahs Quay
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.33
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.02.2024 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 1-1 HT 0-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
27.10.2023 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 6-1 HT 5-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
14.10.2023 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 4-1 HT 2-0 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GALWK
01.09.2023 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 0-4 HT 0-1 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
18.11.2022 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay 3-3 HT 0-1 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town GAL
27.09.2022 Caernarfon Town Caernarfon Town 0-2 HT 0-0 Connahs Quay Connahs Quay GAL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caernarfon Town
2-1
AWAY Connahs Quay
45% Ball Possession 55%
20 Total Shots 15
9 Corners 6
POST-MATCH Caernarfon Town vs Connahs Quay
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caernarfon Town squeezed past Connahs Quay 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Connahs Quay at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Caernarfon Town had 45% of the ball to Connahs Quay's 55%, shots finished 20-15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Connahs Quay led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Caernarfon Town and 3.33 for Connahs Quay.

What was the final score of Caernarfon Town vs Connahs Quay?

Caernarfon Town 2-1 Connahs Quay in the Wales - Premier League on 15/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caernarfon Town vs Connahs Quay?

Before kick-off our model rated an Connahs Quay win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Caernarfon Town 24%, draw 33%, Connahs Quay 43%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Connahs Quay) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Connahs Quay) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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