Union Comercio 0-4 Deportivo Garcilaso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 15 Mar 2024

📅15/03/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
26%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.97
Over 2.5
41%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.63
No
57%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
9%
X/X
17%
2/1
10%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
43%
+3.0pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.3pp
26%
Away Win
30%
-4.2pp
59%
Under 2.5
47%
+12.1pp
41%
Over 2.5
53%
-12.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
57%
-14.7pp
57%
BTTS No
43%
+14.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Comercio EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso EU Bookmakers 34%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
2.05/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.49
+34% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -71% / +30%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
328 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 76%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.8
20.6 Crosses 14.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Comercio
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.23 xG 1.84
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 20
8 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 8
236 Passes 286
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
14 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 3
22.10.2023 Union Comercio Union Comercio 1-2 HT 1-0 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER
04.06.2023 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 2-2 HT 0-0 Union Comercio Union Comercio PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Comercio
0-4
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso
0.91 xG 1.36
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 2
324 Passes 220
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
26 Box Touches 16
24 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Union Comercio vs Deportivo Garcilaso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Garcilaso swept aside Union Comercio 4-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Union Comercio at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, no to both teams scoring (57%) landed while under 2.5 goals (59%) missed.

On the day, Union Comercio had 58% of the ball to Deportivo Garcilaso's 42%, shots finished 18-14, expected goals 0.91 to 1.36.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Deportivo Garcilaso led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Union Comercio and 2.00 for Deportivo Garcilaso.

What was the final score of Union Comercio vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Union Comercio 0-4 Deportivo Garcilaso in the Peru - Premier League on 15/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Comercio vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Comercio win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Union Comercio 46%, draw 28%, Deportivo Garcilaso 26%. The final score 0-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Union Comercio), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Union Comercio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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