Gosport Borough 1-3 Merthyr Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.94
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
42%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.1
Over 2.5
56%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.55
No
43%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
20%
X/X
13%
2/1
4%
2/2
18%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS Yes — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
31%
-0.6pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.4pp
42%
Away Win
41%
+1.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.6pp
56%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.6pp
57%
BTTS Yes
60%
-3.6pp
43%
BTTS No
40%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gosport Borough EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Merthyr Town EU Bookmakers 45%
-8% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / -5%
1.22/1.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.41/1.48
-13% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +63% / -2%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
314 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gosport Borough
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Merthyr Town
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
21.09.2024 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 0-0 Gosport Borough Gosport Borough İNGNLP
03.02.2024 Gosport Borough Gosport Borough 2-1 HT 0-1 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İNGNLP
23.09.2023 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 1-4 HT 1-2 Gosport Borough Gosport Borough İNGNLP
10.12.2022 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 2-3 HT 2-1 Gosport Borough Gosport Borough İNGNLP
06.08.2022 Gosport Borough Gosport Borough 3-2 HT 1-1 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town İNGNLP
19.03.2022 Merthyr Town Merthyr Town 1-2 HT 0-1 Gosport Borough Gosport Borough İNGNLP
POST-MATCH Gosport Borough vs Merthyr Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Merthyr Town got the better of Gosport Borough 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Merthyr Town as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (57%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gosport Borough had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Gosport Borough and 1.17 for Merthyr Town.

What was the final score of Gosport Borough vs Merthyr Town?

Gosport Borough 1-3 Merthyr Town in the England - Non League Premier on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gosport Borough vs Merthyr Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Merthyr Town win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Gosport Borough 30%, draw 28%, Merthyr Town 42%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Merthyr Town), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Merthyr Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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