Leiston 3-4 Barwell — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Non League Premier, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.0
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
27%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.95
Over 2.5
50%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
46%
+1.0pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.1pp
27%
Away Win
29%
-2.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-1.0pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leiston EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Barwell EU Bookmakers 32%
+17% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -3%
1.82/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.61
+14% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -5%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
381 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leiston
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Barwell
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
21.09.2024 Barwell Barwell 0-0 Leiston Leiston İNGNLP
10.02.2024 Leiston Leiston 1-2 HT 0-1 Barwell Barwell İNGNLP
30.09.2023 Barwell Barwell 2-3 HT 2-1 Leiston Leiston İNGNLP
08.04.2023 Leiston Leiston 2-0 HT 2-0 Barwell Barwell İNGNLP
06.02.2023 Barwell Barwell 2-3 HT 1-2 Leiston Leiston İNGNLP
22.01.2022 Barwell Barwell 2-0 HT 2-0 Leiston Leiston İNGNLP
POST-MATCH Leiston vs Barwell
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barwell nicked a narrow win over Leiston 4-3 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Leiston at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leiston had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Leiston and 1.33 for Barwell.

What was the final score of Leiston vs Barwell?

Leiston 3-4 Barwell in the England - Non League Premier on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leiston vs Barwell?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leiston win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Leiston 47%, draw 26%, Barwell 27%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Leiston) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Leiston) ✓ BTTS Yes
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