SGV Freiberg 1-0 Bahlinger SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.75
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
28%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.0
Over 2.5
46%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.73
No
57%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
53%
-2.6pp
21%
Draw
24%
-2.5pp
28%
Away Win
23%
+5.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
46%
+7.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
54%
-7.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
54%
-10.6pp
57%
BTTS No
46%
+10.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME SGV Freiberg EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Bahlinger SC EU Bookmakers 26%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -7%
1.55/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.57
-21% / +79% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +7%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
388 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME SGV Freiberg
3W-1D-1L
AWAY Bahlinger SC
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 7
4 Yellow Cards 4
07.09.2024 Bahlinger SC Bahlinger SC 1-3 HT 1-2 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
02.03.2024 Bahlinger SC Bahlinger SC 0-0 HT 0-0 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
29.08.2023 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 3-2 HT 2-1 Bahlinger SC Bahlinger SC ALMBÖL
15.04.2023 Bahlinger SC Bahlinger SC 1-0 HT 0-0 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
08.10.2022 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 1-0 HT 0-0 Bahlinger SC Bahlinger SC ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH SGV Freiberg vs Bahlinger SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SGV Freiberg edged past Bahlinger SC 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had SGV Freiberg as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (57%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, SGV Freiberg had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for SGV Freiberg and 0.80 for Bahlinger SC.

What was the final score of SGV Freiberg vs Bahlinger SC?

SGV Freiberg 1-0 Bahlinger SC in the Germany - Regional League on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for SGV Freiberg vs Bahlinger SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a SGV Freiberg win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split SGV Freiberg 51%, draw 21%, Bahlinger SC 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (SGV Freiberg), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (SGV Freiberg) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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