Villingen 3-3 Homburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
5.4
Draw
25%
4.49
Away
52%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.23
Over 2.5
52%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
8%
1/X
10%
X/1
7%
X/2
19%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
24%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Homburg win — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
15%
+7.9pp
25%
Draw
19%
+6.3pp
52%
Away Win
66%
-14.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.0pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.4pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Villingen EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Homburg EU Bookmakers 70%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +0%
2.47/3.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.53/0.64
+139% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +56%
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
215 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 445 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Villingen
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Homburg
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 6.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 12
2 Corners 1
3 Yellow Cards 2
07.09.2024 Homburg Homburg 6-0 HT 2-0 Villingen Villingen ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Villingen vs Homburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villingen and Homburg shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 1-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Homburg at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

What was the final score of Villingen vs Homburg?

Villingen 3-3 Homburg in the Germany - Regional League on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Villingen vs Homburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Homburg win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Villingen 23%, draw 25%, Homburg 52%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Homburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Homburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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