Dunkerque 2-3 Metz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.99
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
38%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.68
Over 2.5
37%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.85
No
58%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.68
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
17%
4.07
6+ Goals
8%
19.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.68 — our 36% vs market 30.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.02
1/2
9%
28.5
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
15%
6.6
X/2
10%
4.89
X/X
16%
4.12
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
19%
3.16
2/X
6%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 63%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
30%
+2.7pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.3pp
38%
Away Win
41%
-3.0pp
63%
Under 2.5
56%
+7.8pp
37%
Over 2.5
44%
-7.8pp
42%
BTTS Yes
50%
-8.2pp
58%
BTTS No
50%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dunkerque EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Metz EU Bookmakers 45%
+3% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +3%
1.01/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/0.94
-16% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +61%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
323 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 78%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
18.6 Crosses 15.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dunkerque
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Metz
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.35 xG 2.02
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
405 Passes 288
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
11 Box Touches 26
8 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 1
09.12.2024 Metz Metz 2-0 HT 0-0 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
07.01.2018 Dunkerque Dunkerque 2-4 HT 0-1 Metz Metz FRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dunkerque
2-3
AWAY Metz
1.12 xG 2.44
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 6
340 Passes 325
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Dunkerque vs Metz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Metz edged past Dunkerque 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (33% / 29% / 38%) promised a tight game; Metz found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Dunkerque had 52% of the ball to Metz's 48%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 1.12 to 2.44 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Metz's control.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Metz led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Dunkerque and 3.00 for Metz.

What was the final score of Dunkerque vs Metz?

Dunkerque 2-3 Metz in the France - Ligue 2 on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dunkerque vs Metz?

Before kick-off our model rated an Metz win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Dunkerque 33%, draw 29%, Metz 38%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Metz) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Metz) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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