Sibenik 1-0 Istra 1961 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.99
Draw
32%
2.94
Away
40%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.51
Over 2.5
39%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.06
No
55%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2.16
2-3 Goals
35%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
5.08
6+ Goals
6%
32.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
17%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
30%
-1.8pp
32%
Draw
31%
+1.5pp
40%
Away Win
39%
+0.2pp
61%
Under 2.5
62%
-1.9pp
39%
Over 2.5
38%
+2.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+0.6pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sibenik EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Istra 1961 EU Bookmakers 43%
-13% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -15%
1.08/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/0.87
-35% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -41% / +29%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
264 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 75%
17.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.2
17.8 Crosses 13.2
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sibenik
0W-5D-1L
AWAY Istra 1961
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.76 xG 0.87
49% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
305 Passes 342
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
16 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.12.2024 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 3-3 HT 1-2 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
27.09.2024 Sibenik Sibenik 0-0 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
29.04.2023 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 3-0 HT 1-0 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
24.02.2023 Sibenik Sibenik 0-0 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
23.10.2022 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 0-0 HT 0-0 Sibenik Sibenik HIR
12.08.2022 Sibenik Sibenik 0-0 HT 0-0 Istra 1961 Istra 1961 HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sibenik
1-0
AWAY Istra 1961
1.17 xG 0.63
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 8
1 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 3
138 Passes 311
57% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 15
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Sibenik vs Istra 1961
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sibenik squeezed past Istra 1961 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 28% / 32% / 40% — and on the day Sibenik made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Sibenik had 38% of the ball to Istra 1961's 62%, shots finished 8-8, expected goals 1.17 to 0.63.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Istra 1961 led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Sibenik and 1.00 for Istra 1961.

What was the final score of Sibenik vs Istra 1961?

Sibenik 1-0 Istra 1961 in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sibenik vs Istra 1961?

Before kick-off our model rated an Istra 1961 win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Sibenik 28%, draw 32%, Istra 1961 40%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Istra 1961) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Istra 1961) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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