Sagan Tosu 1-0 Omiya Ardija — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.87
Draw
33%
3.64
Away
40%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.95
Over 2.5
45%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.37
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.19
6+ Goals
10%
11.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.37 — our 28% vs market 22.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
12%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
22%
+4.7pp
33%
Draw
24%
+8.7pp
40%
Away Win
53%
-13.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.4pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Omiya Ardija EU Bookmakers 57%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -26%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
346 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sagan Tosu
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Omiya Ardija
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
310 Passes 429
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 2
19.08.2017 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 3-0 HT 1-0 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP
04.06.2017 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 1-1 HT 0-1 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
25.09.2016 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 1-1 HT 0-1 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
21.05.2016 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 0-1 HT 0-0 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP
23.08.2014 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija 1-3 HT 1-1 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
17.05.2014 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-1 HT 0-0 Omiya Ardija Omiya Ardija JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sagan Tosu
1-0
AWAY Omiya Ardija
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
291 Passes 334
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
15 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sagan Tosu vs Omiya Ardija
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sagan Tosu nicked a narrow win over Omiya Ardija 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 27% / 33% / 40% — and on the day Sagan Tosu made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Sagan Tosu had 46% of the ball to Omiya Ardija's 54%, shots finished 7-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sagan Tosu had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sagan Tosu and 0.83 for Omiya Ardija.

What was the final score of Sagan Tosu vs Omiya Ardija?

Sagan Tosu 1-0 Omiya Ardija in the Japan - J2 League on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sagan Tosu vs Omiya Ardija?

Before kick-off our model rated an Omiya Ardija win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Sagan Tosu 27%, draw 33%, Omiya Ardija 40%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Omiya Ardija), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Omiya Ardija) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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