V-Varen Nagasaki 1-0 Tokushima Vortis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.68
Over 2.5
45%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.64
2-3 Goals
42%
1.71
4-5 Goals
20%
3.96
6+ Goals
9%
19.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-2.7pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.5pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+3.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.9pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Tokushima Vortis EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +7%
1.69/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.10
+23% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +11%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
343 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 380 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
14.7 Crosses 12.3
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Tokushima Vortis
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
49% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
335 Passes 375
1 Yellow Cards 1
29.06.2024 Tokushima Vortis Tokushima Vortis 2-2 HT 0-1 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
13.04.2024 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 6-1 HT 2-0 Tokushima Vortis Tokushima Vortis JAP2
28.10.2023 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 1-2 HT 1-1 Tokushima Vortis Tokushima Vortis JAP2
16.04.2023 Tokushima Vortis Tokushima Vortis 0-4 HT 0-1 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
08.10.2022 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 1-2 HT 0-2 Tokushima Vortis Tokushima Vortis JAP2
03.04.2022 Tokushima Vortis Tokushima Vortis 0-0 HT 0-0 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
1-0
AWAY Tokushima Vortis
42% Ball Possession 58%
18 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 0
273 Passes 432
75% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH V-Varen Nagasaki vs Tokushima Vortis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

V-Varen Nagasaki nicked a narrow win over Tokushima Vortis 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had V-Varen Nagasaki as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, V-Varen Nagasaki had 42% of the ball to Tokushima Vortis's 58%, shots finished 18-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for V-Varen Nagasaki and 1.17 for Tokushima Vortis.

What was the final score of V-Varen Nagasaki vs Tokushima Vortis?

V-Varen Nagasaki 1-0 Tokushima Vortis in the Japan - J2 League on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Tokushima Vortis?

Before kick-off our model rated a V-Varen Nagasaki win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split V-Varen Nagasaki 42%, draw 27%, Tokushima Vortis 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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