Warta Poznan 1-2 Polonia Warszawa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - 1st Division, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.84
Draw
23%
3.18
Away
44%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.67
Over 2.5
48%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.57
2-3 Goals
41%
1.71
4-5 Goals
21%
4.08
6+ Goals
8%
20.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
24%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS No — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+1.2pp
23%
Draw
28%
-4.4pp
44%
Away Win
41%
+3.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-4.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+4.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.2pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Warta Poznan EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Polonia Warszawa EU Bookmakers 45%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +17%
1.08/2.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.12/1.29
-5% / -39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +49% / -15%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
219 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Warta Poznan
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Polonia Warszawa
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
23.08.2024 Polonia Warszawa Polonia Warszawa 2-0 HT 2-0 Warta Poznan Warta Poznan POL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Warta Poznan
1-2
AWAY Polonia Warszawa
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Warta Poznan vs Polonia Warszawa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Polonia Warszawa squeezed past Warta Poznan 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Polonia Warszawa as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Warta Poznan had 57% of the ball to Polonia Warszawa's 43%, shots finished 15-11.

What was the final score of Warta Poznan vs Polonia Warszawa?

Warta Poznan 1-2 Polonia Warszawa in the Poland - 1st Division on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Warta Poznan vs Polonia Warszawa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Polonia Warszawa win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Warta Poznan 33%, draw 23%, Polonia Warszawa 44%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Polonia Warszawa) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Polonia Warszawa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POL1 More Poland - 1st Division
15 Mar 2025
16:30 Nieciecza vs Tychy 71 Analysis →
19:00 Ruch Chorzow vs Wisla Plock Analysis →