Chaves 4-0 UD Oliveirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 15 Mar 2025

Chaves
4-0 HT 1-0
UD Oliveirense
📅15/03/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Chaves vs UD Oliveirense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.64
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
28%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.9
Over 2.5
46%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.13
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.37
6+ Goals
10%
13.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 29% vs market 25.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
57%
-11.1pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.0pp
28%
Away Win
19%
+9.1pp
54%
Under 2.5
49%
+5.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
51%
-5.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.7pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Chaves v UD Oliveirense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chaves EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY UD Oliveirense EU Bookmakers 22%
-6% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +10%
1.36/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.49
-25% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -16%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
287 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
20.7 Crosses 14.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9

Chaves vs UD Oliveirense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chaves
3W-1D-2L
AWAY UD Oliveirense
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.26 xG 0.45
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
292 Passes 280
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
30 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
26.10.2024 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 0-3 HT 0-1 Chaves Chaves POR2
07.03.2021 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 0-1 HT 0-1 Chaves Chaves POR2
20.10.2020 Chaves Chaves 0-2 HT 0-2 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
07.12.2019 Chaves Chaves 0-2 HT 0-2 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
08.11.2015 Chaves Chaves 1-1 HT 0-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
24.05.2015 Chaves Chaves 2-0 HT 2-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2

Chaves 4-0 UD Oliveirense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chaves
4-0
AWAY UD Oliveirense
2.78 xG 1.23
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 10
299 Passes 237
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Chaves vs UD Oliveirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chaves swept aside UD Oliveirense 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Chaves as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Chaves had 51% of the ball to UD Oliveirense's 49%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 2.78 to 1.23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chaves had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Chaves and 0.83 for UD Oliveirense.

What was the final score of Chaves vs UD Oliveirense?

Chaves 4-0 UD Oliveirense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chaves vs UD Oliveirense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chaves win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Chaves 46%, draw 26%, UD Oliveirense 28%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chaves), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chaves) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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