Academico Viseu 1-0 Penafiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.96
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.67
Over 2.5
46%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.95
No
50%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.54
2-3 Goals
43%
1.71
4-5 Goals
21%
4.12
6+ Goals
9%
20.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
9%
1/X
11%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
47%
-6.4pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.2pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+4.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.5pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Academico Viseu EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Penafiel EU Bookmakers 29%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +27%
1.07/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.36
-20% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -3%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
289 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.3 Crosses 17.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Academico Viseu
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Penafiel
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.05 xG 1.22
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 7
301 Passes 276
77% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.10.2024 Penafiel Penafiel 0-2 HT 0-0 Academico Viseu Academico Viseu POR2
10.02.2024 Academico Viseu Academico Viseu 1-0 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
02.09.2023 Penafiel Penafiel 0-0 HT 0-0 Academico Viseu Academico Viseu POR2
07.05.2023 Academico Viseu Academico Viseu 0-0 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
31.12.2022 Penafiel Penafiel 1-2 HT 0-1 Academico Viseu Academico Viseu POR2
13.05.2022 Academico Viseu Academico Viseu 1-2 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Academico Viseu
1-0
AWAY Penafiel
1.56 xG 1.05
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 12
191 Passes 183
70% Pass Accuracy 73%
20 Crosses 20
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Academico Viseu vs Penafiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Academico Viseu edged past Penafiel 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 30% / 29% — and on the day Academico Viseu made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Academico Viseu had 45% of the ball to Penafiel's 55%, shots finished 8-9, expected goals 1.56 to 1.05.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Academico Viseu had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Academico Viseu and 0.50 for Penafiel.

What was the final score of Academico Viseu vs Penafiel?

Academico Viseu 1-0 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Academico Viseu vs Penafiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Academico Viseu win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Academico Viseu 40%, draw 30%, Penafiel 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Academico Viseu), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Academico Viseu) ✓ Under 2.5
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