UD Oliveirense 0-3 Chaves — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 26 Oct 2024

UD Oliveirense
0-3 HT 0-1
Chaves
📅26/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

UD Oliveirense vs Chaves Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.32
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
38%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.71
Over 2.5
40%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.88
No
56%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.82
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.13
6+ Goals
8%
19.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.82 — our 36% vs market 29.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
19%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
27%
+5.5pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.2pp
38%
Away Win
46%
-8.7pp
60%
Under 2.5
55%
+5.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
45%
-5.4pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.0pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

UD Oliveirense v Chaves — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UD Oliveirense EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Chaves EU Bookmakers 50%
-12% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -1%
1.23/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.20
+1% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -12%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
256 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
19.0 Crosses 18.4
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.9

UD Oliveirense vs Chaves Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UD Oliveirense
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Chaves
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.33 xG 0.54
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 8
269 Passes 304
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Crosses 36
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
07.03.2021 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 0-1 HT 0-1 Chaves Chaves POR2
20.10.2020 Chaves Chaves 0-2 HT 0-2 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
07.12.2019 Chaves Chaves 0-2 HT 0-2 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
08.11.2015 Chaves Chaves 1-1 HT 0-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
24.05.2015 Chaves Chaves 2-0 HT 2-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
18.01.2015 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 2-1 HT 1-1 Chaves Chaves POR2

UD Oliveirense 0-3 Chaves — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UD Oliveirense
0-3
AWAY Chaves
0.67 xG 2.70
53% Ball Possession 47%
5 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 9
301 Passes 269
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH UD Oliveirense vs Chaves
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chaves ran out comfortable winners over UD Oliveirense 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (32% / 30% / 38%) promised a tight game; Chaves found the edge the numbers couldn't. On goals, no to both teams scoring (56%) landed while under 2.5 goals (60%) missed.

On the day, UD Oliveirense had 53% of the ball to Chaves's 47%, shots finished 5-13, expected goals 0.67 to 2.70.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, UD Oliveirense had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for UD Oliveirense and 0.83 for Chaves.

What was the final score of UD Oliveirense vs Chaves?

UD Oliveirense 0-3 Chaves in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UD Oliveirense vs Chaves?

Before kick-off our model rated an Chaves win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split UD Oliveirense 32%, draw 30%, Chaves 38%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chaves), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chaves) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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