Benfica II 1-3 Tondela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
35%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.74
Over 2.5
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.9
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.02
6+ Goals
10%
18.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
16%
X/2
18%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-1.4pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.8pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+4.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.0pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica II EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Tondela EU Bookmakers 34%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +24%
1.59/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.06
+21% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / +46%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
354 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.4 Crosses 16.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica II
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Tondela
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.73 xG 1.08
57% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
370 Passes 304
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Crosses 21
6 Yellow Cards 3
28.04.2024 Tondela Tondela 1-1 HT 1-0 Benfica II Benfica II POR2
17.12.2023 Benfica II Benfica II 1-1 HT 0-0 Tondela Tondela POR2
05.02.2023 Benfica II Benfica II 2-1 HT 0-0 Tondela Tondela POR2
12.08.2022 Tondela Tondela 1-1 HT 1-1 Benfica II Benfica II POR2
15.04.2015 Tondela Tondela 2-1 HT 1-1 Benfica II Benfica II POR2
29.11.2014 Benfica II Benfica II 0-2 HT 0-1 Tondela Tondela POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica II
1-3
AWAY Tondela
1.10 xG 1.08
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 7
381 Passes 271
85% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Benfica II vs Tondela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tondela got the better of Benfica II 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (40% / 25% / 35%) promised a tight game; Tondela found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Benfica II had 56% of the ball to Tondela's 44%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.10 to 1.08.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tondela led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Benfica II and 1.33 for Tondela.

What was the final score of Benfica II vs Tondela?

Benfica II 1-3 Tondela in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica II vs Tondela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica II win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Benfica II 40%, draw 25%, Tondela 35%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Benfica II) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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