Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ukraine - Premier League, 15 Mar 2026

📅15/03/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.53
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
16%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.74
Over 2.5
50%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
2.09
No
48%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
23%
X/2
5%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
6%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
61%
-0.0pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.3pp
16%
Away Win
16%
-0.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
54%
-4.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
46%
+3.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
44%
+7.8pp
48%
BTTS No
56%
-7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shakhtar Donetsk EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Metalist 1925 Kharkiv EU Bookmakers 20%
-7% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -2%
2.13/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.32
+21% / -42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +15%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
409 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shakhtar Donetsk
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
13.09.2025 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1-1 HT 0-1 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk UKR
03.12.2023 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 2-0 HT 0-0 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Metalist 1925 Kharkiv UKR
29.07.2023 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1-2 HT 0-1 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk UKR
05.03.2023 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 0-7 HT 0-4 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk UKR
23.08.2022 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 0-0 HT 0-0 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Metalist 1925 Kharkiv UKR
13.08.2021 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 2-0 HT 0-0 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv Metalist 1925 Kharkiv UKR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shakhtar Donetsk
1-0
AWAY Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
52% Ball Possession 48%
4 Total Shots 3
2 Shots on Target 0
5 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Shakhtar Donetsk vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Shakhtar Donetsk squeezed past Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Shakhtar Donetsk as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Shakhtar Donetsk had 52% of the ball to Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's 48%, shots finished 4-3.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Shakhtar Donetsk had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.33 for Metalist 1925 Kharkiv.

What was the final score of Shakhtar Donetsk vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv?

Shakhtar Donetsk 1-0 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv in the Ukraine - Premier League on 15/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shakhtar Donetsk win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Shakhtar Donetsk 61%, draw 24%, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 16%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Shakhtar Donetsk) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Shakhtar Donetsk) ✗ BTTS Yes
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