Deportivo Pasto 2-3 Millonarios — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 15 Apr 2024

📅15/04/2024 · 🕒02:20 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.17
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
41%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.52
Over 2.5
39%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.06
No
57%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
23%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
28%
+0.9pp
30%
Draw
29%
+0.6pp
41%
Away Win
42%
-1.6pp
61%
Under 2.5
62%
-0.8pp
39%
Over 2.5
38%
+0.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.0pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Pasto EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Millonarios EU Bookmakers 46%
-5% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -27%
0.89/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/0.86
-28% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -19%
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
256 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 81%
15.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
19.1 Crosses 17.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Pasto
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Millonarios
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.92 xG 1.56
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
234 Passes 443
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
12 Box Touches 25
8 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.07.2023 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 0-0 HT 0-0 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
23.03.2023 Millonarios Millonarios 2-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
10.07.2022 Millonarios Millonarios 1-1 HT 1-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
22.01.2022 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 0-1 HT 0-1 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
19.02.2021 Millonarios Millonarios 3-1 HT 1-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
27.01.2020 Millonarios Millonarios 1-2 HT 0-2 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Pasto
2-3
AWAY Millonarios
0.52 xG 1.34
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 1
379 Passes 232
80% Pass Accuracy 72%
10 Box Touches 15
17 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Deportivo Pasto vs Millonarios
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Millonarios squeezed past Deportivo Pasto 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Millonarios as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Deportivo Pasto had 60% of the ball to Millonarios's 40%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 0.52 to 1.34.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Millonarios led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Deportivo Pasto and 1.33 for Millonarios.

What was the final score of Deportivo Pasto vs Millonarios?

Deportivo Pasto 2-3 Millonarios in the Colombia - Primera on 15/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Pasto vs Millonarios?

Before kick-off our model rated an Millonarios win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Pasto 29%, draw 30%, Millonarios 41%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Millonarios) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Millonarios) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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