Independiente Medellin 1-0 Atletico Bucaramanga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 15 Apr 2024

📅15/04/2024 · 🕒00:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
30%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.62
Over 2.5
40%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.96
No
59%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-4.4pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.1pp
29%
Away Win
25%
+4.5pp
60%
Under 2.5
58%
+2.0pp
40%
Over 2.5
42%
-2.0pp
41%
BTTS Yes
47%
-5.5pp
59%
BTTS No
53%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Bucaramanga EU Bookmakers 29%
+5% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +22%
1.34/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.27
+10% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +7%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
355 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 76%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.8
18.1 Crosses 15.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Medellin
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Atletico Bucaramanga
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.28 xG 0.99
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
372 Passes 276
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 10
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.09.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga KOL
16.04.2023 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga 1-2 HT 1-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
20.10.2022 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga KOL
24.04.2022 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga 2-3 HT 2-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
04.10.2021 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga KOL
01.02.2021 Atletico Bucaramanga Atletico Bucaramanga 0-1 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Medellin
1-0
AWAY Atletico Bucaramanga
1.30 xG 0.42
65% Ball Possession 35%
11 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 0
3 Corners 3
344 Passes 149
78% Pass Accuracy 62%
18 Box Touches 9
15 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Bucaramanga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Medellin squeezed past Atletico Bucaramanga 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Independiente Medellin as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, Independiente Medellin had 65% of the ball to Atletico Bucaramanga's 35%, shots finished 11-7, expected goals 1.30 to 0.42.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Medellin had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Independiente Medellin and 0.83 for Atletico Bucaramanga.

What was the final score of Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Bucaramanga?

Independiente Medellin 1-0 Atletico Bucaramanga in the Colombia - Primera on 15/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Medellin vs Atletico Bucaramanga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Independiente Medellin 43%, draw 27%, Atletico Bucaramanga 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Medellin), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Medellin) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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