Atlas 2-1 Atletico San Luis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 15 Apr 2024

📅15/04/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.25
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
33%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.1
Over 2.5
53%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.56
No
47%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.12
2-3 Goals
41%
1.85
4-5 Goals
25%
3.05
6+ Goals
11%
9.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
12%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
41%
+1.1pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.1pp
33%
Away Win
33%
-0.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.9pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlas EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico San Luis EU Bookmakers 37%
-10% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -11%
1.31/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.80
-29% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -36%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
284 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 79%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
21.9 Crosses 20.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlas
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Atletico San Luis
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.34 xG 1.10
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
300 Passes 302
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
04.09.2023 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 2-0 HT 1-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
30.04.2023 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 0-0 HT 0-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
12.09.2022 Atlas Atlas 1-3 HT 1-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
16.01.2022 Atlas Atlas 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
25.10.2021 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 2-6 HT 0-4 Atlas Atlas MEK
03.03.2021 Atlas Atlas 3-1 HT 1-1 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlas
2-1
AWAY Atletico San Luis
1.31 xG 0.68
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 3
13 Corners 4
397 Passes 278
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
33 Box Touches 15
29 Crosses 13
POST-MATCH Atlas vs Atletico San Luis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atlas squeezed past Atletico San Luis 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Atlas as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Atlas had 57% of the ball to Atletico San Luis's 43%, shots finished 19-13, expected goals 1.31 to 0.68.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atlas had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Atlas and 1.33 for Atletico San Luis.

What was the final score of Atlas vs Atletico San Luis?

Atlas 2-1 Atletico San Luis in the Mexico - Primera on 15/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlas vs Atletico San Luis?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atlas win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Atlas 42%, draw 25%, Atletico San Luis 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atlas), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Atlas) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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