Pumas UNAM 1-0 Leon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 15 Apr 2024

Pumas UNAM
1-0 HT 0-0
Leon
📅15/04/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Pumas UNAM vs Leon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.9
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
26%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.33
Over 2.5
52%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.5
No
47%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.84
2-3 Goals
40%
1.93
4-5 Goals
23%
2.8
6+ Goals
12%
7.59
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
11%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
49%
-0.2pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.1pp
26%
Away Win
27%
-0.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
39%
+9.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
61%
-9.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
62%
-9.0pp
47%
BTTS No
38%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pumas UNAM v Leon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Leon EU Bookmakers 31%
+13% / +31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +1%
1.70/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.50
+50% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
322 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 77%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
18.6 Crosses 13.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.1

Pumas UNAM vs Leon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pumas UNAM
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Leon
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.17 xG 1.51
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
227 Passes 412
74% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 25
11 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.11.2023 Leon Leon 1-1 HT 0-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
22.01.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 4-1 HT 2-1 Leon Leon MEK
10.07.2022 Leon Leon 3-3 HT 0-2 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
13.02.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 2-1 HT 2-1 Leon Leon MEK
21.10.2021 Leon Leon 1-2 HT 0-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
16.09.2021 Leon Leon 2-0 HT 1-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM CONLK

Pumas UNAM 1-0 Leon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pumas UNAM
1-0
AWAY Leon
1.48 xG 0.46
63% Ball Possession 37%
18 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
456 Passes 237
90% Pass Accuracy 78%
25 Box Touches 12
28 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Pumas UNAM vs Leon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pumas UNAM nicked a narrow win over Leon 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Pumas UNAM as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Pumas UNAM had 63% of the ball to Leon's 37%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 1.48 to 0.46.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pumas UNAM had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Pumas UNAM and 1.50 for Leon.

What was the final score of Pumas UNAM vs Leon?

Pumas UNAM 1-0 Leon in the Mexico - Primera on 15/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pumas UNAM vs Leon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pumas UNAM win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Pumas UNAM 48%, draw 25%, Leon 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pumas UNAM) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pumas UNAM) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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