Zamalek 2-1 Al Ahly — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Egypt - Premier League, 15 Apr 2024

📅15/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.08
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
38%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.8
Over 2.5
41%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.75
No
58%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
3.18
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
17%
3.69
6+ Goals
8%
15.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.18 — our 35% vs market 25.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
11%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
29%
+5.6pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.2pp
38%
Away Win
44%
-5.7pp
59%
Under 2.5
52%
+7.8pp
41%
Over 2.5
48%
-7.8pp
42%
BTTS Yes
53%
-10.8pp
58%
BTTS No
47%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Zamalek EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Ahly EU Bookmakers 48%
+26% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -11%
1.13/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/0.92
+57% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -29%
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
272 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 398 · 81%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
13.1 Crosses 15.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Zamalek
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Al Ahly
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.84 xG 1.25
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
298 Passes 352
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
08.03.2024 Zamalek Zamalek 0-2 HT 0-0 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSRK
13.07.2023 Al Ahly Al Ahly 4-1 HT 3-0 Zamalek Zamalek MSR
21.01.2023 Zamalek Zamalek 0-3 HT 0-0 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
28.10.2022 Zamalek Zamalek 0-2 HT 0-1 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSRSK
21.07.2022 Al Ahly Al Ahly 1-2 HT 0-2 Zamalek Zamalek MSRK
19.06.2022 Al Ahly Al Ahly 2-2 HT 1-0 Zamalek Zamalek MSR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Zamalek
2-1
AWAY Al Ahly
1.11 xG 0.43
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 5
330 Passes 435
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
9 Box Touches 18
5 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Zamalek vs Al Ahly
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Zamalek edged past Al Ahly 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 27% / 38% — and on the day Zamalek made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Zamalek had 44% of the ball to Al Ahly's 56%, shots finished 9-8, expected goals 1.11 to 0.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Ahly led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Zamalek and 2.33 for Al Ahly.

What was the final score of Zamalek vs Al Ahly?

Zamalek 2-1 Al Ahly in the Egypt - Premier League on 15/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Zamalek vs Al Ahly?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Ahly win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Zamalek 35%, draw 27%, Al Ahly 38%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Al Ahly) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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