Alianza Lima 2-0 Atletico Grau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 15 Apr 2024

📅15/04/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.42
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
20%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.97
Over 2.5
52%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.99
No
52%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
21%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
12%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
66%
-11.2pp
25%
Draw
21%
+4.0pp
20%
Away Win
13%
+7.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
47%
+1.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
53%
-1.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
46%
+2.2pp
52%
BTTS No
54%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Lima EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Grau EU Bookmakers 16%
+12% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / -8%
1.99/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/1.47
+8% / +61% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / +60%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
377 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 75%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.3
19.5 Crosses 13.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Lima
4W-1D-0L
AWAY Atletico Grau
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 0.60
2.37 xG 0.50
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
298 Passes 339
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 15
14 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 2
24.06.2023 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 2-0 HT 2-0 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau PER
26.03.2023 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau 1-2 HT 1-1 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
10.07.2022 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau 1-2 HT 1-2 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
05.02.2022 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 1-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau PER
16.02.2020 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Grau Atletico Grau PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Lima
2-0
AWAY Atletico Grau
0.84 xG 0.87
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 3
246 Passes 327
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Lima got the better of Atletico Grau 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Alianza Lima as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Alianza Lima had 44% of the ball to Atletico Grau's 56%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 0.84 to 0.87.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Alianza Lima had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Alianza Lima and 0.60 for Atletico Grau.

What was the final score of Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau?

Alianza Lima 2-0 Atletico Grau in the Peru - Premier League on 15/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Lima vs Atletico Grau?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza Lima win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Alianza Lima 55%, draw 25%, Atletico Grau 20%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alianza Lima), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Alianza Lima) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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