Orense 3-1 Barcelona SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 15 Apr 2025

📅15/04/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
3.29
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
37%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.68
Over 2.5
46%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
27%
+9.5pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.6pp
37%
Away Win
45%
-8.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.1pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Orense EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Barcelona SC EU Bookmakers 49%
+24% / +29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -5%
1.24/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.19
+29% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +44% / -5%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
228 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 75%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
16.0 Crosses 17.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Orense
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Barcelona SC
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.94 xG 1.25
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
249 Passes 258
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 16
14 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
18.08.2024 Orense Orense 3-2 HT 2-1 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC EKV1
17.03.2024 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 0-0 HT 0-0 Orense Orense EKV1
30.10.2023 Orense Orense 2-3 HT 2-1 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC EKV1
20.05.2023 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 2-0 HT 0-0 Orense Orense EKV1
20.08.2022 Orense Orense 1-2 HT 1-0 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC EKV1
11.04.2022 Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 2-0 HT 1-0 Orense Orense EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Orense
3-1
AWAY Barcelona SC
2.66 xG 0.77
32% Ball Possession 68%
14 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 1
152 Passes 371
73% Pass Accuracy 85%
25 Box Touches 24
8 Crosses 27
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Orense vs Barcelona SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orense got the better of Barcelona SC 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 26% / 37% — and on the day Orense made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Orense had 32% of the ball to Barcelona SC's 68%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 2.66 to 0.77.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barcelona SC led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Orense and 1.83 for Barcelona SC.

What was the final score of Orense vs Barcelona SC?

Orense 3-1 Barcelona SC in the Ecuador - Premier on 15/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Orense vs Barcelona SC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Barcelona SC win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Orense 36%, draw 26%, Barcelona SC 37%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Barcelona SC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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