El Nacional 1-3 Independiente Del Valle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 15 Apr 2025

📅15/04/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.46
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
46%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.74
Over 2.5
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
8%
X/2
15%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
23%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
26%
+3.3pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.9pp
46%
Away Win
47%
-1.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-5.4pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Nacional EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 51%
-11% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -12%
1.13/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/0.94
-19% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +26%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
249 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 78%
17.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
21.0 Crosses 17.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Nacional
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.39 xG 1.98
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
168 Passes 318
71% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
27.11.2024 El Nacional El Nacional 1-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKVK
03.11.2024 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-0 HT 1-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
12.05.2024 El Nacional El Nacional 1-2 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
02.12.2023 El Nacional El Nacional 2-1 HT 0-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
17.06.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 3-4 HT 1-2 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
07.10.2022 El Nacional El Nacional 0-2 HT 0-2 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKVK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Nacional
1-3
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
1.22 xG 1.56
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
351 Passes 300
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 19
25 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH El Nacional vs Independiente Del Valle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Del Valle got the better of El Nacional 3-1 away from home.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Independiente Del Valle as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, El Nacional had 55% of the ball to Independiente Del Valle's 45%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 1.22 to 1.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for El Nacional and 1.67 for Independiente Del Valle.

What was the final score of El Nacional vs Independiente Del Valle?

El Nacional 1-3 Independiente Del Valle in the Ecuador - Premier on 15/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Nacional vs Independiente Del Valle?

Before kick-off our model rated an Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split El Nacional 29%, draw 25%, Independiente Del Valle 46%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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