El Nacional 1-0 Independiente Del Valle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Cup, 27 Nov 2024

📅27/11/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 0-4
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
17%
6.35
Draw
28%
4.19
Away
55%
1.41
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.86
Over 2.5
53%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.19
No
53%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
19%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
10%
1/X
4%
X/1
5%
X/2
8%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
37%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
17%
Home Win
13%
+4.0pp
28%
Draw
21%
+7.8pp
55%
Away Win
67%
-11.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
50%
-2.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
50%
+2.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
42%
+5.6pp
53%
BTTS No
58%
-5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Nacional EU Bookmakers 16%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 71%
+71% / +71% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
2.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/0.51
+116% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +80%
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
264 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 503 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Nacional
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.21 xG 1.74
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
175 Passes 304
72% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.11.2024 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-0 HT 1-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
12.05.2024 El Nacional El Nacional 1-2 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
02.12.2023 El Nacional El Nacional 2-1 HT 0-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
17.06.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 3-4 HT 1-2 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
07.10.2022 El Nacional El Nacional 0-2 HT 0-2 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKVK
06.12.2020 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-0 HT 2-0 El Nacional El Nacional EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Nacional
1-0
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 12
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH El Nacional vs Independiente Del Valle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Nacional nicked a narrow win over Independiente Del Valle 1-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Independiente Del Valle at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, El Nacional had 40% of the ball to Independiente Del Valle's 60%, shots finished 11-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for El Nacional and 2.00 for Independiente Del Valle.

What was the final score of El Nacional vs Independiente Del Valle?

El Nacional 1-0 Independiente Del Valle in the Ecuador - Cup on 27/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Nacional vs Independiente Del Valle?

Before kick-off our model rated an Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split El Nacional 17%, draw 28%, Independiente Del Valle 55%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Independiente Del Valle), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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