Santa Fe 1-2 Independiente Medellin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 15 Apr 2025

Santa Fe
1-2 HT 0-1
Independiente Medellin
📅15/04/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Colombia - Primera – 2025

Santa Fe vs Independiente Medellin Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.57
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
37%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.62
Over 2.5
41%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
14%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
35%
+1.0pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.3pp
37%
Away Win
36%
+1.3pp
59%
Under 2.5
58%
+0.9pp
41%
Over 2.5
42%
-0.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.4pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Santa Fe v Independiente Medellin — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santa Fe EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 40%
+4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -4%
1.18/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.23
+10% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -22%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
307 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 80%
16.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.1
16.4 Crosses 14.0
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.9

Santa Fe vs Independiente Medellin Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santa Fe
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Independiente Medellin
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.89 xG 0.75
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
252 Passes 332
72% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Box Touches 17
13 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
19.10.2024 Santa Fe Santa Fe 1-1 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
11.02.2024 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-1 HT 0-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
03.08.2023 Santa Fe Santa Fe 1-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
04.02.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-1 HT 0-1 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
21.08.2022 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-0 HT 1-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
20.02.2022 Santa Fe Santa Fe 1-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL

Santa Fe 1-2 Independiente Medellin — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santa Fe
1-2
AWAY Independiente Medellin
1.19 xG 0.67
55% Ball Possession 45%
3 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 0
262 Passes 218
78% Pass Accuracy 75%
7 Box Touches 17
13 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Santa Fe vs Independiente Medellin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Medellin nicked a narrow win over Santa Fe 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 27% / 37% — and on the day Independiente Medellin made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Santa Fe had 55% of the ball to Independiente Medellin's 45%, shots finished 3-11, expected goals 1.19 to 0.67 — the balance of chances actually favoured Santa Fe.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Santa Fe had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Santa Fe and 0.83 for Independiente Medellin.

What was the final score of Santa Fe vs Independiente Medellin?

Santa Fe 1-2 Independiente Medellin in the Colombia - Primera on 15/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santa Fe vs Independiente Medellin?

Before kick-off our model rated an Independiente Medellin win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Santa Fe 36%, draw 27%, Independiente Medellin 37%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Medellin) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Medellin) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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